Are We Headed for a Recession Crime Wave?
November 20th, 2008 categories: Central Connecticut News & Information, Home Owners
Back in October, the New York Times had an article called “Keeping Wary Eye on Crime as Economy Sinks.” For anyone who remembers New York City in the 80s and early 90s (I almost went to NYU in 1992 - almost), the idea that we could return to a time of higher crime rates is unsettling.
Is it any coincidence that Hoffman Guns, just a few doors down from my office on the Berlin Turnpike in Newington just opened a newer and larger store and that the lot is always full? Gun sales are up and while some may attribute that to the Obama’s election and possibly tighter gun laws, I think it has just as much to do with the downturn in the economy.
From the New York Times article,
“Every recession since the late ’50s has been associated with an increase in crime and, in particular, property crime and robbery, which would be most responsive to changes in economic conditions,” said Richard Rosenfeld, a sociologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. Typically, he said, “there is a year lag between the economic change and crime rates.”
In addition, Ken Gronbach, a Connecticut ad man turn demographer, predicted this crime wave years ago in his book, Common Census. In 2007, Gronbach posted his predictions on his blog and one of them was a crime wave due to the huge numbers of Generation Y young men coming of age with nothing to do.
From his blog,
“…a crime wave, owing to the repopulating of a segment of unemployed high risk young men in the crime committing age of fifteen to thirty. We are seeing increasing evidence of this now. This is not an anomaly. This is a trend. Generation Y, now twenty-two years old and under, will be the largest generation in the history of the United States. The peak of this generation is currently seventeen years old. It will fill the prime crime committing age of fifteen to thirty with more idle high risk young men than this nation has ever seen. It will become very difficult to live safely in the Nation’s cities. “
Burglaries are likely to be on the rise - whether you attribute it to the economy or the changing demographics. Buying a gun doesn’t suit everyone but there are several things you can do to deter burglars at your home, for example getting a dog (or just getting some dog supplies to make it seem like you have a dog), adding exterior lighting, and trimming back bushes.
Click here to receive the full free report on improving your home’s security - just type “Security” in the message.
In the state of CT, Sec. 53a-20 says that you can use deadly force if someone forces entry into your dwelling. You don’t necessarily need to fear for your life.
http://www.cga.ct.gov/2007/pub/Chap951.htm#Sec53a-20.htm
I do not think you’ll see a quick reversion of federal gun laws back to the 90s craze of Assault Weapons Bans (which sunset-ed quietly a few years ago without notice, by the way).
If crime goes up, we’d do better as a society to recognize and treat the ROOT of the problem instead of the symptoms. Take away guns and people will just use knives in crimes. Take away knives and they’ll just make their own. Tightening gun laws won’t actually decrease acts of crime.
But I’m a believer in 2nd Amendment rights and if it ever came down to it, I would protect my family and thank myself for not sticking my head in the sand.
The interesting thing about doing research this post was that the US media had almost nothing about the connection between recession and crime-the NY Times was the only major publication I could find. There are dozens and dozens of articles in European papers.